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Portfolio Strategy

The Changing Seasons Summer to Fall, but Not Yet Winter

Our View

  • The global economic climate has changed quite dramatically since the beginning of the year and runs in stark contrast to the glory days of 2021 But as a reminder, the change or better yet, the evolution in the economic cycle is quite similar to the changing seasons This includes the transition from the hot days of summer to the cooler days of fall with the eventual arrival of the frigid winters here in the north
  • Likewise, economic cycles tend to evolve through their own 4 distinct phases/seasons including early cycle, mid cycle, late cycle and recession These transitions typically coincide with changes in several factors with the most important being the changes in the shape of the yield curve
  • In the subsequent pages, we conduct a weather check of the U S and Canadian economies by analyzing the evolution of several leading coincident, and lagging economic indicators We also compare these readings to those we observed at the beginning of the past few recessions In addition, we provide our top down U S ../Canadian equity style and sector recommendations for the S&P 1500 and S&P/TSX indices
  • Finally, while we believe winter is coming, it is definitely not here YET, so enjoy the beauty of the fall colours and the cooler temperatures, and remember to buy low and sell high!


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S&P 1500 - U.S. Equity Screen   |   S&P TSX - Canadian Equity Screen